Cautious optimism over European yield outlook (2025)

Sowing is continuing to progress across the EU, with spring barley and sugar beet sowing almost complete in many countries in the bloc, according to a new report from the European Commission.

Across Europe, two distinctly different situations have been observed.

In central and northern Europe, dry conditions have resulted in soil moisture deficits that may have an adverse affect on winter crop development.

However, southern Europe has benefited from abundant rainfall, which has improved soil moisture and boosted crop yield prospects.

According to the European Commission, the lack of rainfall and dry soils in central and northern Europe – particularly in France, Germany, and Poland – are raising concerns about winter crop growth and the emergence and early development of spring crops.

Dry conditions have been observed across large regions of central and northern Europe, including north-eastern France, the Benelux countries, Germany, Czechia, western and northern Poland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states.

These regions are experiencing a rainfall deficit of at least 50% compared with the average and, for most of them, the analysis period ranks among the driest since 1991.

These dry conditions are coupled with above-average temperatures boosting evapotranspiration, leading to accelerated crop development, but also to the depletion of soil moisture.

Although the dry period initially allowed a recovery from the excessively wet winter conditions, further rain is now essential to avoid any reduction in yield expectations.

European Union

In central and eastern European countries, like Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, western and eastern Romania, and southern Bulgaria, a combination of two cold spells and wet weather from mid March to early April delayed the sowing of spring and summer crops.

However, the sowing window is still open, and field activities are expected to continue in April.

The lack of percipitation, which is just 60% of the long-term average since March 1, is becoming a concern.

Winter cereals are approaching the flowering stage, while rapeseed is already flowering, and rainfall is needed to sustain optimal growth.

Some regions of central Italy experienced excessive precipitation in March and April, resulting in overly wet soils. The development of winter crops could be adversely affected if the wetter-than-usual conditions continue.

The European Commission report also said that in Turkey, the rainfall in April was insufficient to mitigate the water deficit observed since the start of February. In several regions, particularly where irrigation is limited, winter cereals had suboptimal growth.

Finally, the impacts observed in the western Maghreb region and in eastern Ukraine are the result of a dry winter period causing unfavourable growing conditions for winter crops.

In both regions, winter crops are performing poorly, with below-average yield expectations.

AHDB

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) believes that overall, the yield outlook remains positive across the EU.

However the board believes that over the next few weeks, rainfall is required to support development of winter crops, and emergence/initial growth of spring crops.

The AHDB said: “Currently, up to two inches of rain is forecast across parts of central Europe over the next seven days, relieving concerns somewhat.

“Though if rainfall remains minimal longer-term, we could see some revisions to the European Commission’s estimates next month.

“If we do see tighter-than-expected supplies, we could see some support in European, and therefore domestic prices as a result, something to look out for,” it added.